Oil prices have soared above $100 per barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on March 2, disrupting 17.8 million barrels per day of global oil flows. Brent crude surged nearly 60% in March, marking its steepest monthly gain since 1988. Despite the sharp rise in oil prices, U.S. bond yields have fallen, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping from 4.44% to 3.92% in late March, indicating a market shift towards recession fears over inflation concerns. This unusual decoupling of oil prices and bond yields suggests a "flight to safety" as growth risks overshadow inflation risks. Historical precedents show that such oil price spikes often precede economic downturns, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a U.S. recession to 30%. Meanwhile, Société Générale forecasts Brent crude could peak at $150, while Goldman Sachs expects a decline to $80 by year-end if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The bond market's current trajectory suggests a preference for recession over inflation.