Researchers at NYU Stern School of Business have discovered a groundbreaking method for predicting contract volatility in prediction markets using only two parameters: current price and time to expiration. This approach challenges traditional models, such as the GARCH model, by demonstrating superior forecasting accuracy without relying on historical data or complex algorithms. The study mathematically proves that instantaneous contract volatility is determined by the function φ(N⁻¹(π(t)))/√(T-t), where π represents the current price and T-t is the time to expiration. This finding was validated across 901 InTrade contracts, highlighting that volatility is independent of historical trends or correlations. The model's practical applications include pricing options on prediction contracts and identifying market anomalies, offering a significant edge to traders who adopt this simplified approach.