Roundhill, GraniteShares, and Bitwise's PredictionShares have filed proposals for ETFs that would allow investors to trade on U.S. election outcomes. These funds would track binary event contracts tied to political results, such as which party wins the presidency or controls Congress. The contracts, trading between $0 and $1, settle at $1 for a 'yes' outcome and $0 for 'no'. This move aims to package election-linked contracts into ETFs, making them accessible through familiar brokerage platforms.
The filings come amid regulatory tensions between the SEC and CFTC over event contracts. By placing these contracts within an ETF framework, the proposals bring them under SEC oversight. The ETFs could shift speculative interest from niche prediction markets to mainstream financial products, potentially impacting liquidity and attention in the crypto space. The proposals also highlight the complexities of defining 'control' in political terms, which could affect payout structures and investor expectations.
New ETFs Aim to Turn U.S. Election Outcomes into Tradable Assets
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