Morgan Stanley's latest report suggests that large-scale adoption of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) in Scale-Up networks is anticipated by 2029, with small-scale introductions expected in 2028. The report, dated July 13, addresses market concerns over CPO "delays," attributing them to the need for a rebuilt supply chain involving packaging, optical engines, and lasers. The rollout is anchored to NVIDIA's Feynman generation timeline.
Despite these delays, copper cables are projected to remain viable for another two years due to advancements like PAM4 modulation, DSP, and retimers. The expansion of AI cluster scales, from 72 GPUs to potentially 1152, is a significant driver of this evolution. The year 2026 is marked as the beginning of the non-NVIDIA Scale-Up ecosystem, with AMD MI400, Amazon Trainium 3, and Microsoft Maia entering mass production. Companies like Astera Labs and Broadcom are expected to benefit significantly, with Morgan Stanley maintaining overweight ratings on NVIDIA, Broadcom, Astera Labs, and Keysight.
Morgan Stanley Predicts CPO Adoption in Scale-Up Networks by 2029
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