Morgan Stanley has observed a significant pullback in Asian memory stocks, with declines ranging from 15% to 25% over the past month, as reported in a recent TMT webcast. Despite the overall chip sector trading sideways, the valuation framework for memory stocks is undergoing a shift. Key factors influencing this change include CSP capital expenditure expectations, which are 30% to 37% above consensus, and the easing of cyclical downturn fears due to long-term agreements.
The upcoming earnings season at the end of July is expected to provide initial validation for these trends. Additionally, Yangtze Memory Technologies' plans for Fab4 and Fab5, each with a capacity of approximately 100kwpm, could impact supply dynamics. Morgan Stanley suggests that the pricing logic for memory stocks is transitioning from cyclical volatility to a focus on structural mid-to-high returns, with companies demonstrating sustainable profitability likely to receive a valuation premium.
Morgan Stanley Highlights Shift in Memory Stock Valuation Amid Pullback
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