Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital, warns of impending turbulence for risk assets, driven by declining liquidity cycles. He argues that current economic data does not support media narratives of a looming deep recession. Howell emphasizes the importance of understanding liquidity cycles, which he believes are inflecting lower and will lead to a flattening of yield curves, contrary to consensus expectations. Howell highlights the interplay between business and liquidity cycles, noting that liquidity cycles often lead the business cycle by 15 to 20 months. He stresses that global liquidity, defined by the capacity of credit providers, is crucial for debt refinancing and economic stability. Investors are advised to focus on liquidity trends and market sentiment as indicators of future economic conditions.