Markets are currently predicting a 78% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January 2026, based on futures data and platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. A potential 25-basis-point rate cut is seen as less likely, with a 22% probability. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has dismissed speculation regarding a change in leadership, emphasizing that such discussions do not influence monetary policy decisions. Despite this, the Federal Reserve continues to grapple with high inflation and labor market risks, which remain central to ongoing policy debates.