QCP Group's latest macro-trend report highlights a shift in market focus from optimism surrounding recent macro event signings to concerns over execution risks. The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has been signed, and Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $80 per barrel, reducing tail risks. However, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, with only 14 transits, and a 60-day technical negotiation period has begun. Market attention is now on tanker flow volumes and compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire. The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% but indicated a longer period of higher rates, raising the 2026 median dot-plot projection to 3.8%. Core PCE inflation is forecasted at 3.30%, with headline PCE at 3.82%, underscoring inflation as the primary concern. Meanwhile, SpaceX's stock has dropped 27% from its peak post-IPO, shifting focus from IPO momentum to AI financing, as it integrates into the AI capital formation cycle.