Four major financial institutions—Moody’s Analytics, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and EY-Parthenon—have independently increased their estimates for the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to over 30%, citing the ongoing oil crisis. Moody’s Analytics reported the highest probability at 48.6%, followed by EY-Parthenon at 40%, JPMorgan Chase at 35%, and Goldman Sachs at 30%. This marks a significant rise from previous estimates, with Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi noting a sharp increase from 15% in December 2024. The surge in recession probabilities is largely attributed to the recent spike in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude prices have risen from $70 to over $100 per barrel since late February, impacting global energy supplies. Historical data from JPMorgan suggests that such oil price shocks have often preceded recessions. Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlighted two potential outcomes: a resolution leading to lower oil prices and economic growth, or prolonged conflict resulting in sustained high prices and recessionary pressures.