Crypto lawyer Jin Jianzhi has highlighted the legal complexities surrounding blockchain-based prediction markets. Unlike traditional gambling, these markets aggregate information requiring skill, offering social value. In the United States, they are treated as derivatives and require CFTC licensing. However, in China, they are classified as gambling, exposing operators to charges of "operating a casino." In China, individuals involved in these markets, such as fee-based key opinion leaders (KOLs) and support providers, may face legal liabilities. While ordinary users generally avoid criminal charges, they could incur administrative penalties for large stakes. Sensitive topics further increase legal risks, and despite few cases, existing precedents apply. Compliant prediction markets are unlikely to emerge outside the US in the short term.