A comprehensive checklist of recurring drivers impacting Bitcoin's market dynamics has been outlined, focusing on probabilities over the next 12 to 24 months. The Federal Reserve's liquidity cycle is highlighted as a significant factor, with a high probability of influencing Bitcoin's trajectory. Recent data shows that 9 out of 18 Fed officials favor a rate hike, although softer June job numbers have reduced these odds. Key upcoming events include the July 14 CPI release and the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. MicroStrategy's ($MSTR) financial maneuvers also play a crucial role, with the company's market NAV falling below 1.0x, prompting a shift to $STRC issuance. This has led to a cascade effect, with preferred obligations amounting to approximately $1.4-1.5 billion annually, predominantly held by retail investors. Additionally, the "buy rumor, sell news" regulatory cycle is noted, with clarity odds dropping to 48% due to unresolved issues such as ethics and stablecoin-yield disputes.