Open interest on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket has decreased by 20% as the excitement surrounding the World Cup fades. The combined open interest fell from a peak of approximately $2 billion in early July to about $1.5 billion. Kalshi's trading volume in sports events, which reached around $9 billion during the week of July 5, has declined to $4 billion, while Polymarket's volume dropped from $2.3 billion to $740 million. During the World Cup, sports events constituted 80% of the trading volume on these platforms.
In the aftermath of Spain's 1-0 victory over Argentina, marking its second World Cup title, Polymarket's profit and loss data revealed that 194,000 addresses participated in the World Cup champion market. Approximately two-thirds of these traders incurred losses, with most profits and losses under $100. However, 54 addresses each gained over $100,000, including 5 that earned more than $1 million, while 43 addresses each lost over $100,000. Prediction market activity is expected to remain low until the U.S. midterm elections provide the next significant trading catalyst.
Kalshi and Polymarket Open Interest Drops 20% Post-World Cup
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