Kain Warwick has offered an alternative explanation for the disproportionate perpetual futures volume observed on Kalshi, attributing the activity to structural incentives rather than wash trading. Warwick argues that market makers are responding rationally to payment mechanisms that reward crossing trades, effectively generating massive volume through legitimate arbitrage of the incentive structure.
Warwick illustrated this dynamic by comparing it to paying two market makers a dollar for every trade they execute against each other, suggesting such a setup would inevitably produce extraordinary volumes. His theory posits that the current volume metrics reflect predictable market maker behavior driven by compensation models rather than artificial manipulation or fraudulent activity.
Kain Warwick Attributes Kalshi's Lopsided Perp Volume to Incentives Over Wash Trading
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