JPMorgan analysts have observed a notable divergence in fund flows between Bitcoin and gold ETFs following the Iran-Iraq conflict that began on February 27th. The largest gold ETF, GLD, experienced an outflow of approximately 2.7% of its assets, while the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, saw an inflow of about 1.5% of its assets. Despite a trend of retail investors shifting from Bitcoin to gold since last October, IBIT's cumulative inflows since 2024 remain roughly double those of GLD.
Institutional behavior also reflects this divergence, with increased short interest in IBIT and decreased short interest in GLD, suggesting a preference for gold over Bitcoin among hedge funds and institutions. The put/call open interest ratio for IBIT has been consistently higher than GLD's since November, indicating a greater demand for hedging against Bitcoin's downside risk. Conversely, GLD's implied volatility has risen more significantly, despite weaker market breadth, while Bitcoin's volatility shows signs of compression, indicating stronger institutional holdings and improved liquidity.
JPMorgan: Bitcoin and Gold ETF Flows Diverge Amid Iran Conflict
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