The Israeli Knesset has resumed debates on the contentious ultra-Orthodox draft bill, intensifying the risk of parliamentary dissolution amid a coalition crisis. The bill, which addresses military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews, has strained Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, with Haredi factions threatening to support dissolution if their demands are unmet. This political turmoil coincides with ongoing conflict in Gaza, making the draft bill a critical issue. Market indicators reflect the heightened instability, with the Israeli Parliament Dissolution market pricing a 51.5% chance of dissolution by June 30, up from 40% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the Netanyahu Out market remains relatively stable at 50.5% for the end of 2026. The debates have not significantly affected Israel-Indonesia normalization markets, which continue to show low probability for change.