HYPE, despite its strong buyback mechanism and revenue support, may face mid-term investment challenges due to structural and macroeconomic factors. Starting November 29, 2025, 37% of HYPE's total supply will unlock over 24 months, potentially adding $200 million in monthly supply pressure. This contrasts with a 2025 buyback budget of $644.64 million, which covers only 25-30% of the daily unlock. Furthermore, HYPE's valuation is heavily reliant on bullish market data, with 91% of its revenue coming from trading fees. This dependency could lead to a 'Davis double kill' scenario in a bear market. While HYPE remains a viable long-term investment, the mid-term risks from token unlocks, revenue cyclicality, and macroeconomic shifts may outweigh its current valuation benefits.