A detailed guide has been released for creating an autonomous trading agent on Polymarket, emphasizing the need for coding, API integration, and risk management. The process begins with setting up a VPS, such as a $4.50/month option from DigitalOcean, and installing Rust. Developers are advised to obtain API keys for Polymarket and Claude (Anthropic) to access market data and perform reasoning tasks.
The agent is programmed in Rust to run a loop every 10 minutes, fetching data from 500-1000 markets via the Polymarket API. It uses Claude to estimate fair values by analyzing external data sources like NOAA for weather or sports injury reports. The agent identifies mispricings greater than 8% by comparing these fair values to current odds, and calculates position sizes using the Kelly Criterion, capping at 6% of the bankroll.
Trades are executed through the Polymarket API if the criteria are met, with a starting wallet balance of $50. The guide stresses the importance of monitoring the agent legally and compliantly, and recommends debugging in simulation mode before live trading to mitigate risks.
Guide to Building an Autonomous Polymarket Trading Agent
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