Goldman Sachs has highlighted a significant breakdown in the options market's volatility skew as U.S. stock markets continue to rise. According to derivatives strategist Brian Garrett, the volatility skew of S&P 500 options has fallen to an 18-month low, with the market pricing the probability of a 10% decline and a 10% rise at nearly identical levels of around 8%. This phenomenon, termed "Skew breakdown," indicates a diminished demand for hedging against downside risks, as reflected by the Goldman Sachs Fear Index hitting a two-year low.
Garrett expressed concerns over the narrow market leadership, with the top ten stocks in the S&P 500 accounting for 40% of the index's weight, and noted that recent all-time highs occurred amid negative market breadth. Additionally, the index excluding AI-related stocks has underperformed by 700 basis points. Despite these bearish signals, the options market does not reflect these concerns, with hedging costs at historic lows. Goldman Sachs recommends strategies such as buying RSP relative to SPX outperformance options and purchasing VIX call options for hedging.
Hedge funds have shown net buying for two consecutive weeks, driven by long positioning increases and macro short covering. Meanwhile, assets under management for global leveraged and inverse single-stock ETFs have doubled to over $60 billion in two months, highlighting significant sector rotation and market dynamics.
Goldman Sachs Warns of Options Market 'Skew Breakdown' Amid U.S. Stock Rally
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