Galaxy Research has reduced the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 60% to 50%, citing a crowded Senate calendar and lack of progress. The bill, which passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, remains stalled as item 423 on the legislative calendar with no scheduled vote or merged bill text. The Senate must announce a schedule by early July to vote before the August recess, or the decision will be delayed until September, complicating matters due to midterm elections. Key legislative priorities, including FISA Section 702 and the NDAA, are consuming significant Senate time, while Trump's refusal to sign a housing bill adds to scheduling pressures. The CLARITY Act's unresolved ethics provisions are a sticking point, with at least two Republican senators expected to oppose it, making Democratic support crucial. Galaxy Research notes that a leadership commitment to a July vote could restore passage odds to 60% or higher, but continued inaction would further decrease the likelihood.