Galaxy Research analysis of Polymarket on-chain settlement data reveals that 69.2% of approximately 2.9 million retail accounts on the international platform ended up below breakeven, resulting in cumulative losses of $338.9 million. The study, based on data compiled by Stork and filtered by manual trading frequency, found that 15.2% of accounts ceased opening new positions within 30 days after a loss, compared to only 6.1% following a profit.
The report identified "expert traders" as accounts trading at least five category markets with over 60% concentration in a single theme, representing 44.1% of the user base. Sports dominated this segment at 47% but recorded the lowest profitability rate at 25.1%, while technology and science traders achieved the highest profitability at 41.2%. Profitable traders maintained a median position size of $13.96 versus $10 for losing traders, though no clear correlation was found between holding time and profitability.
Galaxy Research: 69.2% of Polymarket Retail Accounts Lost Money with $338.9M in Cumulative Losses
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