A study by XWIN Research Japan reveals that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings do not determine Bitcoin's medium-term direction but instead act as catalysts for market repositioning. Analyzing 24 FOMC meetings from 2022 to 2024, the research found that only 17% of these events led to sustained directional changes in Bitcoin prices. The study highlights that these meetings primarily trigger short-term volatility and leverage clearing, rather than setting a clear price trajectory.
The research identifies three phases around FOMC meetings: pre-meeting accumulation, announcement volatility, and post-meeting repositioning. It emphasizes that sustainable Bitcoin movements depend more on fundamental market health indicators, such as leverage reduction and liquidity recovery, than on the policy details themselves. Historical data shows that positions established 3-5 days after FOMC meetings have a 42% higher success rate, as excessive leverage clears and true market direction emerges.
FOMC Meetings Act as Catalysts for Bitcoin Market Repositioning, Study Finds
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