Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has announced the impending conclusion of the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program, which has reduced the balance sheet by $2.2 trillion since June 2022. While some investors view this as a positive development, historical trends suggest otherwise. MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert highlights that stock markets have historically performed better during QT periods than during quantitative easing (QE) phases.
Since the start of QT in June 2022, the S&P 500 has achieved a 20.9% annualized return, significantly higher than the historical average during QT. Hulbert points out that QT typically coincides with strong economic conditions, whereas QE is often implemented during downturns. The Fed's decision to end QT could indicate an impending economic slowdown, potentially leading to a market downturn before conditions improve.
Fed's Powell Indicates End of Quantitative Tightening, Market Concerns Arise
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