Senior Federal Reserve official Thomas Barkin has indicated that a December interest rate cut is not guaranteed, as the Fed awaits crucial economic data delayed by the recent government shutdown. Speaking in Virginia, Barkin highlighted that inflation remains above the 2% target but is not expected to rise further, while unemployment may see a slight increase. Current market expectations show a 48.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 51.1% chance of rates being held steady. The Fed's final rate decision for 2025 is scheduled for December 10.