U.S. stocks have historically struggled in the first months after the Federal Reserve begins raising interest rates, but tightening cycles have not always ended bull markets when the economy avoids recession, according to Investopedia-cited analysis from LPL Financial.
LPL Financial chief equity strategist Jeff Buchbinder reviewed six Fed tightening cycles since 1994 and found the S&P 500’s short-term performance after the first rate hike was typically weak, while one-year results were stronger. The 1997 cycle was a standout, with the S&P 500 rising 42% in the following year.
LPL said current conditions differ from 2022 and more closely resemble the late 1990s, with economic growth still intact and a new technology investment cycle forming. The firm said the artificial intelligence investment boom could support corporate capital spending and technology stocks while partly offsetting valuation pressure from higher rates.
Fed Rate Hike Outlook Puts U.S. Stock Market at Key Test
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