The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that oil supply disruptions in the Middle East will continue until the end of 2026, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The disruptions, primarily due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are expected to result in production losses reaching 9.1 million barrels per day in April.
The report also forecasts a peak price differential of $15 per barrel between Brent and WTI crude oil in April, coinciding with the height of the supply disruptions. U.S. retail gasoline prices are anticipated to hit their highest average since 2022 by 2026. Additionally, global oil demand is projected to be 104.6 million barrels per day in 2026, slightly lower than previous estimates, with a further increase to 106.2 million barrels per day in 2027.
EIA Forecasts Middle East Oil Supply Disruptions Until End of 2026
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