Prediction markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were caught off guard by the outcome of the Netherlands' October 29 election, where Democrats 66 (D66) led by Rob Jetten unexpectedly surpassed Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV). D66's odds skyrocketed from 5% to 100% following the first exit poll, resulting in significant losses for traders holding long positions on PVV. With 98% of votes counted, both D66 and PVV were projected to secure 26 seats each in the 150-seat lower house, with PVV losing 11 seats. Traders who failed to adjust their positions based on late polling data faced substantial losses, while those who adapted profited from the unexpected shift.