Deutsche Bank declared that the "AI dollar era" has arrived, warning that AI-driven market adjustments are fundamentally altering the traditional relationship between the US dollar and equities, eroding the greenback's safe-haven status. Recent simultaneous weakness in tech stocks and the dollar reflects risks that are more two-sided than previously priced by markets.
The bank identified two key drivers behind this shift. First, foreign investors now hold over $20 trillion in US equities, with approximately 90% of that asset growth driven by price appreciation rather than new purchases. Second, hedging dynamics have changed — the decade-long negative correlation between US stocks and the dollar incentivized unhedged currency exposure. A domestic shock to US equities could now trigger synchronized declines in both assets, amplifying losses for overseas holders.
Deutsche Bank noted that if real US yields and equities fall simultaneously, it would signal markets are repricing expectations for AI capital expenditure growth, further confirming the dollar's diminishing safe-haven appeal.
Deutsche Bank: AI Dollar Era Has Arrived, Undermining USD Safe-Haven Status
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