Despite claims of market maturity, recent research by Kaiko reveals that crypto exchange IPOs remain heavily influenced by Bitcoin's price movements. The 2025 IPO successes of Circle and Bullish, which raised over $1 billion each, suggested a growing institutional appetite for regulated crypto exposure. However, Kaiko's analysis indicates that exchange trading activity and valuations are still closely linked to Bitcoin's performance. The volatility of Bitcoin continues to dictate trading volumes and, consequently, exchange revenues. This dependency was highlighted by Gemini's IPO, which saw a significant drop in stock value following a Bitcoin downturn, leading to workforce reductions and market exits. As exchanges like Kraken delay IPO plans due to unfavorable market conditions, the sector faces scrutiny over its ability to generate stable earnings independent of Bitcoin's fluctuations. The distinction between stablecoin infrastructure companies like Circle and traditional exchanges is becoming more pronounced. While Circle's revenue streams are less dependent on trading volumes, exchanges must demonstrate diversified income sources to withstand market cycles. Until exchanges can prove their resilience through audited reports, Bitcoin remains the key factor influencing their public market success.