CME FedWatch data as of December 23, 2025, suggests an 80.1% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in January 2026. The likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut stands at 19.9%. Looking ahead to March 2026, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut increases to 44.7%, while the chance of no change is 47.1%. There is also an 8.2% probability of a 50-basis-point cut. These projections come as global regulatory efforts, including the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, continue to shape market expectations.