Citrini Research said stronger coordination between the Treasury and Federal Reserve could reshape the bond market by pushing the government toward more short-term debt financing and reducing long-term Treasury supply. The firm said that setup could support a rally in 30-year Treasuries.
The research group said changes in bank regulation, Treasury debt management, and Federal Reserve balance sheet policy are converging into what it called a new "Treasury-Fed accord." Under that framework, the Fed would continue shrinking its balance sheet while commercial banks expand theirs and absorb more Treasury bills. Citrini said lower issuance of long-term Treasuries could help drive long-term yields down, and it recommends positioning for 30-year Treasuries to outperform 5-year Treasuries as the yield spread narrows.
Citrini Sees 30-Year Treasuries Rallying as Treasury-Fed Coordination Shifts Issuance Shorter
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