China's oil demand growth is projected to slow to nearly zero by 2027 as the nation nears peak consumption, according to Wood Mackenzie. While demand for gasoline and diesel is already declining, growth is expected in aviation fuel and petrochemicals. The consultancy highlights that storage decisions in 2026 could significantly affect global oil balances, impacting Brent/WTI time spreads, refinery margins, and commodity currencies such as CAD, NOK, and MXN.
China's crude throughput may see a slight increase in 2026, but weak domestic demand is likely to limit further growth. Export quotas for refined products remain crucial, with potential effects on Asian refining margins. Market participants are advised to closely monitor Chinese crude import data, storage levels, and product export quotas to assess market impacts.
China's Oil Demand Growth to Stall by 2027, Impacting Global Markets
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