Capital Economics has indicated that Tokyo's lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures have overstated the deceleration in Japan's inflation. The recent data, influenced by Tokyo's new free childcare measures, has led to market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might not raise rates in October. However, Capital Economics believes the BOJ will proceed with tightening monetary policy at its upcoming meeting. The introduction of free childcare in Tokyo is part of broader efforts to alleviate price pressures, anticipated to reduce Japan's overall inflation by approximately 0.7 percentage points. Despite this, national inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, is expected to decrease slightly from 3.3% to 3.1% this month.