Bitcoin's current disconnect from record-high stock markets may not last, according to recent analyses. Stablecoin transaction volumes have already surpassed all of 2025's figures in the first half of this year, and tokenized real-world assets have grown over 60% year-to-date. Crypto ecosystem transactions hit record highs in Q2, highlighting a significant gap between market capitalization and on-chain activity, which analysts believe is unlikely to persist. Jim Ferraioli, Schwab’s director of digital currencies research, noted that Bitcoin's recovery aligns with historical post-halving cycles, despite expectations of institutional adoption altering its traditional four-year cycle. Ferraioli estimates Bitcoin's production cost for less efficient miners at around $95,000, with the average investor's cost basis near $80,000, potentially leading to selling pressure as prices recover. He emphasized that while the four-year cycle isn't a market law, it remains a significant factor in investor psychology.