Bitcoin Magazine Pro's lead analyst, Matt Crosby, argues that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle may no longer be a reliable framework for traders. Crosby highlights that structural changes in supply, institutional demand, and macro liquidity are now more influential than the halving-driven cycle. With over 95% of Bitcoin's total supply already issued, the impact of halvings has diminished, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.
Crosby points to significant accumulation by large treasury buyers and spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are acquiring Bitcoin at rates exceeding its daily inflation. He emphasizes the importance of liquidity and macroeconomic conditions over calendar-based cycles, noting Bitcoin's strong correlation with global liquidity and the S&P 500. Crosby also challenges the relevance of election-cycle seasonality and suggests that Bitcoin's market behavior is increasingly influenced by on-chain and macro indicators. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $78,144.
Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Losing Relevance, Analyst Suggests
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