On-chain analyst Murphy reports that the average cost basis for unprofitable Bitcoin positions has decreased to $93,600, marking a significant drop below the $100,000 threshold. This shift indicates that Bitcoin would need to rebound to $93,600 for the market to reach its average breakeven point. The decline follows substantial sell-offs by holders during sharp market downturns at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, which reduced the overall average cost basis. The 30-day average deviation coefficient between the average cost basis of unprofitable positions and the current Bitcoin price is currently 1.4. Historically, a coefficient of 2.0 or higher has signaled a market bottom, with Bitcoin's price falling to less than 50% of the average cost basis. However, this bear market may not follow past patterns, potentially being less severe. On Polymarket, predictions show a 68% probability of Bitcoin reaching $60,000 before $80,000, which has a 32% probability.