Bitcoin has climbed back above $81,000, gaining over 6% this week, as market sentiment improved following the suspension of "Project Freedom" by Trump, which was interpreted as a downgrade signal. This move led to a decline in oil prices, a rise in stock markets, and a weakening of the dollar. Despite the rally, the options market has not confirmed a full breakout, with the one-month at-the-money implied volatility remaining around 41% and a 30-day risk reversal still favoring put options at -5.5 vol, indicating cautious optimism.
QCP analysis highlights Japan as a new macroeconomic pressure point, with a weakening yen, increased intervention risks by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and rising Japanese government bond yields potentially tightening global liquidity. With open interest concentrated between $80,000 and $85,000, a clear breakout above $82,000 to $83,000 is crucial for Bitcoin. Until then, any significant rise in oil prices, USD/JPY, or global yields could trigger a sell-off in the rebound.
Bitcoin Surges Above $81,000 Amid Market Shifts, Faces Key Resistance
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