Bitcoin has rebounded from approximately $75,000 to around $78,000, driven by the extension of the Iran ceasefire by Trump, which eased short-term risks. However, QCP analysis suggests this is a relief rally rather than a trend reversal. Persistent lockdowns, oil prices hovering around $100, and unclear Iranian positions contribute to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Kevin Warsh's comments indicate that Federal Reserve policy is increasingly data-dependent, with no significant market adjustments in interest rate expectations. In the crypto market, rising open interest and negative funding rates suggest continued short positioning, posing a short squeeze risk. Derivatives market pricing indicates consolidation rather than trend continuation, reflecting limited institutional confidence in directional moves.