Recent analysis by Glassnode reveals that despite strong demand for Bitcoin call options in mid-January, the market continues to reflect asymmetric downside risk. The one-week 25-day skew shifted from bearish to neutral, and the put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, indicating bullish sentiment. However, longer-term skews remain bearish, with the one-month 25-day skew moving only slightly from 7% to 4%, and the three-month skew changing by less than 1.5%.
This suggests that while there is short-term bullish demand, it is not sustained across longer timeframes. Additionally, implied volatility of at-the-money options was sold during the price rise, with gamma sellers profiting, indicating that the recent price action lacks the characteristics of a sustainable breakout. For a true breakout, spot prices need to approach key levels, skew across all maturities should point higher, and volatility should be bought, conditions not met in the recent rally.
Bitcoin Options Market Shows Short-Term Bullishness Amid Long-Term Bearish Risks
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