Bitcoin's price may form a new floor around $30,000, according to historical patterns that indicate a bottoming process begins when the market price falls below the average purchase price of long-term holders (LTH). Currently, the LTH average is slightly above $40,000, suggesting a potential further decline of at least 50% from current levels. Despite this bearish outlook, the absence of speculative hype from certain market commentators suggests a significant portion of the downturn may already be behind us.