Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) cohort continues to grow, but a key profitability metric, the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), has dropped below 1.0, indicating cautious market sentiment. On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. reported that the LTH Realized Supply increased from 5.26 million BTC in January to 8.32 million BTC by April 16, while the LTH SOPR, on a seven-day moving average, fell to 0.979, remaining below 1.0 for five consecutive days.
Adler noted that while more coins are aging into long-term holder status, some are being sold at a loss, reflecting a cautious market structure. Despite this, the supply side remains constructive, with a significant rise in LTH Realized Supply over the past year. Adler highlighted that the current market profile suggests consolidation near $75,000, rather than a broad distribution event. However, repeated dips in LTH SOPR below 1.0 since February indicate that long-term holders are occasionally selling at a loss, raising concerns about potential market stress.
Adler emphasized that the current shallow dips in SOPR, followed by quick recoveries, do not yet signal a full bearish reset. The key risk would be a deeper SOPR decline combined with a reversal in Realized Supply, which could indicate a shift from cohort expansion to active distribution. As of now, Bitcoin trades at $77,880.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR Dips Below 1.0, Signaling Cautious Market Sentiment
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