Bitcoin has surged to a new all-time high of $125,000, driven by strong retail demand despite the absence of ETF inflows and institutional support, according to QCP analysis. The market shows signs of overheating with high funding rates, yet whales have not significantly sold off their holdings. The strengthening of gold and renewed safe-haven narratives due to a potential U.S. government shutdown may support short-term gains. However, QCP warns that leverage is at elevated levels, and without additional institutional capital, sustaining this rally could be challenging.