Bitcoin could face renewed seasonal pressure in September, with market direction likely to hinge on ETF fund flows and spot demand, according to a CryptoQuant Research report released August 28. The report noted that September has historically been one of the weakest months for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a return of about -0.8% over the past 50 years. Bitcoin recorded negative September returns for six straight years from 2017 to 2022, but posted gains in September in 2023, 2024, and 2025, suggesting the seasonal pattern may be losing strength. CryptoQuant said uncertainty tied to the U.S. midterm elections in 2026 could increase volatility and push investors to reduce risk exposure. Analysts said the key issue is whether seasonal weakness develops into broader risk aversion: if risk-off sentiment spreads, Bitcoin may come under pressure, while continued strength in ETF inflows and spot BTC demand could help break the traditional September pattern again.