Bitcoin has retracted approximately 52% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000, according to NYDIG analysis. The market is reportedly in an incomplete contraction phase, lacking bottom signals such as long-term holder capitulation and systemic bankruptcies. Key demand drivers from 2025, including spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases, have weakened in 2026. ETFs have experienced increased volatility, with weekly redemptions reaching up to 25,000 BTC, while corporate buying is now concentrated among a few companies. Additionally, Bitcoin's historical weak performance from May to September adds to the downside risks, with NYDIG suggesting that recovery may hinge on stabilizing ETF flows and stablecoin balances.