Bitcoin's potential to reach $200,000 by the end of the year hinges on a possible 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Historically, the fourth quarter has been Bitcoin's strongest, with an average return of 85.4%. Currently, Bitcoin is trading between $110,000 and $115,000, supported by positive ETF inflows. However, August and September are typically slow months for Bitcoin, which may delay a breakout to $125,000. October and November have historically been Bitcoin's most active months, offering significant returns. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates and Bitcoin surpasses $125,000, it could trigger a momentum phase, setting the stage for a potential breakout. The next 45 days are critical for Bitcoin's Q4 expansion, with a need to establish $125,000 as a support level.