Bitcoin is undergoing a deleveraging phase, but a cyclical bottom has not yet been established, according to a report by CryptoQuant. Key indicators such as falling open interest and basis compression on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) suggest ongoing deleveraging. The CME basis compression, a futures yield curve reflecting demand for leveraged long exposure, has been declining since 2025, mirroring patterns from previous bear markets. However, the curve's positive slope indicates that while leverage demand is cooling, the market has not reached capitulation levels.
The decline in futures open interest, which has dropped 47% from its 2025 peak, further supports the notion of a gradual reset rather than acute stress. This trend, similar to the 2022 bear market, highlights a major unwind of leveraged positions. The combination of declining open interest and a positive yield curve suggests a consolidative or mid-cycle bearish regime, with a definitive bottom yet to form.
Bitcoin Deleveraging Continues, Cyclical Bottom Yet to Form
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