Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani forecasts a significant expansion in U.S. prediction markets, projecting a trading volume of $240 billion in 2026, marking a 370% year-over-year increase. Chhugani anticipates an 80% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030, with volumes reaching $1 trillion by early 2030.
Key drivers of this growth include enhanced federal regulatory clarity, blockchain tokenization, and digital currency integration, which are expected to boost market liquidity and transform trading contract structures. Chhugani predicts a shift in market focus, with institutional markets emerging around economic, business, and political contracts, while sports contract trading volume is expected to decrease from over 60% today to 50% by 2030.
Bernstein Projects $1 Trillion U.S. Prediction Market Volume by 2030
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