In a dramatic shift in AI model prediction markets, Anthropic has surged to a 76% probability of finishing February as the top model, up from just 7% on February 5. This leap has displaced Google, which has seen its probability plummet from 90% to 14%. OpenAI holds a 6% probability.
Notably, a trader known as ProfessionalPunter has capitalized on this volatility, achieving a total profit and loss of $184,000. As the second-largest YES holder on Anthropic, ProfessionalPunter entered the market at approximately 60¢ and has already accrued around $5,000 in unrealized gains from this swing. This rapid market response underscores the agility of prediction markets compared to traditional media outlets.
Anthropic Surges in AI Model Prediction Markets, Overtakes Google
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