Ilya Spivak, Global Macro Head at Tastylive, has identified potential hidden risks in upcoming U.S. inflation data, with economists forecasting February's headline CPI at 2.4% and core CPI at 2.5%. A significant concern is the diminishing impact of energy prices on inflation, as oil prices have been rising since early 2026, making a repeat of January's scenario unlikely.
Traders are advised to focus on core services price growth, which has shown a modest decline. This trend could indicate inflation normalization, especially after recent Middle East tensions eased. However, if core prices do not continue to decline, financial markets may face renewed volatility, with prolonged high interest rates posing challenges for equities, bonds, and non-U.S. currencies.
Analyst Highlights Hidden Risks in U.S. Inflation Data Amid Rising Oil Prices
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