André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, has advised investors to exercise caution when relying on the stock-to-flow (S2F) model for Bitcoin valuation. The S2F model, which forecasts a peak Bitcoin price of $222,000 in the current market cycle, primarily focuses on Bitcoin halvings that reduce new supply every four years. However, Dragosch highlights that the model overlooks demand-side factors, such as the significant institutional demand through Bitcoin ETPs and corporate treasuries, which now surpasses the annualized supply reduction from the last halving by over seven times.
Despite the S2F model's limitations, institutional participation through exchange-traded funds and other investment tools has provided substantial price support, maintaining Bitcoin's value above $100,000. As the market matures with increased institutional involvement, the debate continues among investors and analysts regarding Bitcoin's price trajectory and whether it has reached its peak or still holds further upside potential.
Analyst Cautions Against Overreliance on Bitcoin S2F Model
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