AllianceDAO co-founder QwQiao has stated that the primary driver of Bitcoin's price movements is technical analysis, rather than external factors like Jane Street or Quantum. He argues that Bitcoin, lacking cash flow anchoring, is influenced by psychological factors inherent in technical analysis. QwQiao suggests that belief in a four-year cycle prevails over a five-year cycle, and once trends break, investors tend to take profits or cut losses. He emphasizes that most other explanations are correlations rather than causations. QwQiao further notes that the current market situation requires patience, as a complete psychological capitulation may have already occurred, and a trend reversal could happen without a specific catalyst.